Hard to Predict: Owen Dale is moving to Blackpool

A tricky player on the pitch makes a tricky move off it.

So, yet another Crewe academy product leaves. Owen Dale is going to Championship side Blackpool, initially on loan until January, with a view to a permanent move. It’s all a bit confusing.

Dale first broke into the Crewe Alexandra first team as an 18-year-old, and found the net just once in his first 13 starts over the next two seasons. Then, things really clicked. He scored in four league games in a row in December 2020, and backed this scoring run up with an excellent return of 11 goals last season. Dale was a new man and quickly (he does everything quickly) became a key player for the Railwaymen, sweeping up all the club’s end of season awards.

He quickly (yep, that word again) became a fan favourite for Crewe but this has already soured. His departure (whether temporary or permanent) comes at an awkward time. There has been an exodus of talent from the Crewe side in the last 12 months. Perry Ng, Harry Pickering, Ryan Wintle and Charlie Kirk have all left in recent times, and there is a big talent vacuum behind them. Whereas all these players left on relatively good terms, have played 150+ games for Crewe and earning their move through a consistently improving reputation on the pitch, there is a sense that Dale has manufactured a move before it was ready.

While I don’t think it’s my place to comment on that, I would say that some Crewe fan’s volatile reaction to Dale is framed by this narrative. So, if an Alex fan is telling you that Dale isn’t any good, their idea of the young winger is clouded. He certainly is good. Whether he is ready for the Championship yet is debatable though, and will be interesting to see in the next few months.

In this article, I go through Owen Dale’s strengths, weaknesses, and potential fit at Blackpool. Data is from Wyscout, FBRef and Opta. *Sighs* let’s do this.

Dale brings a bundle of threat in the attacking third

The 22-year old’s potential is sky high, though he needs to refine a lot of aspects of his game.

Dale is lightning quick and a nightmare for opposing fullbacks in the final third. Dale’s low centre of gravity and speed give him the ideal build for a winger.  He is very direct and willing to take risks. According to Wyscout, Dale had about 6 dribbles per game last season, which comfortably led his other Crewe teammates in attacking positions. While others cut passes patiently through the opposition, Dale was more of a wrecking ball.

A naturally right-footed winger playing on the right, he can stretch the opposition defence with width and is also a threat in behind.

The graph above shows how each of Crewe’s main goal threats accumulated Expected Goals (the line) and Goals (the ball symbols) through the 2020/21 season. As you can see, Dale (the grey line) provided a valuable goal threat for Crewe last term, emerging after a slow start of the season to become a key attacker.

He was Crewe’s joint top scorer in 20/21 and can score a variety of goals – he had 0.6 shots per game with both his right and left foot, and 0.3 per game with his head. This variety is hugely useful. He scored regularly with his ‘weaker’ left foot, simply because he was difficult for opposition defenders to predict, and could craft better shooting angles.

His hot goal-scoring streak last term was reminiscent of Mason Greenwood’s emergence at Manchester United, 18 months or so ago. The smart money said it wasn’t sustainable and he was getting a bit lucky. But because of his relative two-footedness and technical ability, it’s likely that Dale is an above-average shooter.

As shown by the video below, he certainly has the eye for the spectacular, with a shiny highlight reel of great goals already. It’s fun when it comes off, but the last-minute bicycle kicks or 25-yard screamers aren’t going to come off every week:

Far from just a goal threat, Dale was also a decent creator in 20/21 season, as shown in the chart from The Analyst below. Dale only contributed two assists last season; however, his Expected Assist (xA) output (0.15 per 90) suggests the quality of his passing into attacking areas could have resulted in more goals. He mostly does a good job of dribbling into dangerous areas before passing to a teammate, meaning the chances he creates are normally dangerous ones.

Dale is also a determined player off the ball, running all day defensively. Crewe are not a team who are keen to press, but when asked to, Dale did this very well last season. His rapid acceleration gives opponents little time to react, and he is surprisingly tenacious and strong in the tackle for someone of his size.

Dale has all the potential in the world, but it’s still mostly potential

Almost everything you’ve just read in praise of Owen Dale is based upon his performances since November 2020. In football terms, that isn’t a long time ago. At all.

Before the 2020-21 season, Dale had started just 7 league games for Crewe. There just isn’t a lot to go on.

He certainly has the physical and technical tools, but there is a lot to refine in his game. His dribbling, while a threat, often directs him into traffic. He has a bad habit of running directly at the man in front of him with the ball, and regularly loses it.

Dale has played most of his games as a right winger. He has played on the left on a few occasions, but his game is likely to be limited to wide areas. Dale doesn’t yet possess the guile or passing ability to produce as a creator in central areas consistently, limiting his potential to play in a more varied way.

If his opposing fullback has the beating of him, which will happen more often in The Championship, Dale hasn’t yet shown the ability to outthink an opponent rather than outpace him. More than most, Dale might be a ‘flat-track’ bully this season, who will skin an opponent often one week, then be marked out of the game the next.

His fit at Blackpool

Owen Dale’s fit at Blackpool, and in The Championship generally, will be interesting to see. He doesn’t have long to make an impact. If Blackpool don’t like what they see in the next few months, he could come back to Crewe in January with his tail between his legs.

One thing in his favour is Blackpool manager Neil Critchley. Critch is a former Crewe coach and knows Owen Dale well. This deal, in some ways, is years in the making. Having a manager who knows him so well and will show him more patience than most is the best possible situation for Dale, particularly considering the relative pressure he is now under to perform.

Tactically, Crewe and Blackpool have similarities which will benefit Dale. This is unsurprising considering Neil Critchley’s time in Crewe’s coaching staff.

Both teams were relatively passive without the ball last season. While Dale would also be well suited to a team who presses more, he is more likely to quickly fit in at Blackpool, where his defensive responsibilities will be similar.

The key difference defensively is that Dale will likely be asked to drop deeper in Blackpool’s 442 defensive shape, compared to Crewe’s regular 433. From there, Dale will be asked to spring forward more quickly and counter, something he is well suited to, but didn’t do much of at Crewe.

Blackpool’s attacking is slightly more direct and incisive than Crewe’s patient passing style, though the differences are subtle. Again, Dale should fit, but it’s hard to say with certainty due to the step up in opposition quality.

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Overall, there are more questions than answers. Dale had an excellent second half of last season in League One, and with another season at that level, could have secured his reputation as one of the most promising wingers in the Football League.

Without this, it’s hard to say with any confidence how he will do at Blackpool. I hope for his sake that he’s made the right move. We’ll quickly find out.