How should Crewe (and others) navigate the transfer market this summer?
Considering how to recruit, promote and sell players effectively to suit the club's overall style
The transfer market is likely to be slower this summer. It turns out that even football teams have a limit to their spending; all it takes is a global pandemic.
For the first time in many years, you could make the case for football being a ‘buyers’ market. Lower league clubs are releasing a lot of talented players for financial reasons rather than footballing ones.
The key considerations that every team need to make however remain the same. These are:
1. What type of football will be the most successful use of our current players?
2. Where are the gaps in our squad, if we want to play this type of football well?
3. Do we have to fill these gaps in the transfer/loan market, or can we use our existing players? Who is available?
4. How do our finances look? Do we need to sell players? Are we paying wages for players we don’t want?
5. What is the selling price we’d accept for every player we have? Are there buyers who could pay this price?
All these questions are critical to making smart decisions in squad building. Clubs (and fans) tend to be good at answering point 2 (and think they’re good at point 3 as well). Everyone is a critic. Everyone loves buying players.
Point 2 however is useless in isolation. Without a clear answer to point 1, you run the risk of a patchy playing squad unsuited to your style and each other. Without a clear answer to point 3, you waste money and block pathways for young players. Without a clear answer to point 4, you’ve got no chance of survival in such an expensive business, and without a clear answer to point 5, you don’t understand your own squad or the market you’re operating in.
Let’s use The Alex as a case study in working through the points above. Data is from WhoScored, FBRef, and Wyscout.
1. What type of football will be the most successful use of our current players?
For Crewe, this is an easy one. They have a clearly defined way of playing under manager Dave Artell, and a stable squad to implement this plan.
I don’t want to rehash my previous article about Crewe here too much, but here are the key points about the playing style:
· Crewe built their tactical approach last season on continuity and balance. They used a 433 shape about 90% of the time in the 2019/20 season, with clearly defined roles for every player, which played mostly to individual strengths.
· Using possession heavy football, a low-medium defensive block, and relying on their extensive technical talent all over the pitch to unlock opponents was the formula in 2019/20.
You can count on it being the formula again in 2020/21. Therefore, we need to keep this in mind.
2. Where are the gaps in our squad, if we want to play this type of football well?
Here are all the players that played over 1000 minutes for Crewe last season:
The highlighted players are leaving. Carrying on from point 1, the broad formula of shape, style and personnel will stay the same. Therefore, the club should focus on the gaps at centre back and central midfield as a priority due to the biggest amount of ‘minutes leaving’ this summer.
Back-up forward should have been a secondary consideration, but Crewe have been aggressive in bringing in 2 front men already this summer. New arrivals Mikael Mandron and Offrande Zanzala are both ambitious signings with League One experience. They bring different skillsets, as shown by this chart:
This table shows Crewe’s striking options compared to League 1+2 strikers:
• All 3 are tidy passers
• Porter and Mandron are better creators.
• Mandron contested and won the most aerial duels per 90 among League 1 strikers in 19/20
• Mandron and Zanzala take lots of shots.
• Zanzala has strong xG per 90 numbers - he's a poacher
Individually, both signings make sense. Mandron unselfishness and physicality is a unique skillset and could be a good fit. I can envisage him playing a role like Olivier Giroud at Chelsea – holding up play, blocking off defenders, and playing clever headers and layoffs for teammates, rather than being the primary goal threat.
Zanzala makes sense as a specialist substitute, which is a role I can see being a general trend. In the final half an hour of a game, against tired defenders ground down from Crewe’s patient passing, I can certainly see him coming on and scoring a few late goals.
However, I would question the need to sign both and keep Porter with a finite budget. If the team is wedded to 433 (they should be), then having 3 players on decent wages for 1 starting spot seems redundant. My guess is that getting Mandron on a 1-year contract may have been too good to pass up, especially considering Porter is nearing retirement.
3. Do we have to fill these gaps in the transfer/loan market, or can we use our existing players? Who is available?
Here is a quick depth chart, which includes everybody still on the books who was in a Crewe matchday squad last season, or is a new signing (in blue):
There are obviously young players not covered by this – but this shows those closest to the first team. Onyeka for example could also break in to the squad this season.
Depth looks good in a few areas. Young fullbacks Johnson and Adebesi signed new deals. Callum Ainley could easily start at this level and provides excellent competition for Tom Lowery and the wingers, though Ainley is best suited to attacking positions and would struggle with the defensive load of the ‘box to box’ role. Striker depth is well…deep.
At centre back, Luke Offord and Eddie Nolan are favourites to start. I’ve highlighted Sass-Davies in red as he doesn’t seem to have gained Artell’s trust. When an injury crisis hit Crewe centre backs last term, Artell was reluctant to throw him in. If this is still the case, then maybe a loan move for Sass-Davies makes most sense, which leaves only 3 (injury prone) centre backs.
In central midfield, Olly Finney is ready to step up as a first choice. Young Josh Lundstram has also impressed on loan at Altrincham. From the limited action I’ve seen, Lundstram has looked comfortable shielding Alty’s defence. He has a particularly good passing range and can break from deep with and without the ball. I could see him in the ‘Wintle Role’ at the base of midfield, and further up at a pinch. With Alty’s promotion, it makes sense for him to stay there for another 6 months to further his development and test himself in a better league. He looks like a potential gem, but I doubt he’s ready for League One football yet.
So, we’ve established that there are still holes at centre back and the defensive midfield/ ‘box to box’ midfield roles.
Finding a Centre Back
Let’s look at centre back first. Using data to evaluate defenders is difficult, as the best defenders don’t really do much ‘defending’ at all. But there are certain things you can look for.
Crewe centre backs play quite differently to most teams at this level. The key differentiation is the team’s commitment to playing out from the back. Statistically, this really shows up when you look at pass completion % for League Two centre backs in the 19/20 season.
The average pass completion %s for Crewe centre backs were high last season. Here is where they rank among all 110 League Two centre backs according to Wyscout for this measure (who played more than 500 minutes):
· Nicky Hunt – 86.1% (1st)
· Eddie Nolan – 85.8% (2nd)
· Olly Lancashire – 84.9% (3rd)
· Luke Offord – 82% (8th)
· Michael Nottingham – 77.8% (28th)
Because this is a product of the system as much as the skills of the centre backs, we need to consider passing ability of any centre back recruits, rather than just their raw pass completion %.
Another consideration is aerial ability. This excellent research from Andy Forrester shows the difference in centre back play across different leagues:
In League One, centre backs need to use their head slightly less than in League Two, but still a massive 28% of the balls they play use their noggin. While Crewe are a possession focused team and like the ball on the floor, they cannot succumb to focusing purely on a centre back’s skill with the ball.
There are several options still available. Here are my favourite ‘sensible signings’ who are still available as of 6/8/20:
Rhys Bennett
Bennett is an ambitious aim, but he would certainly fill a large Michael Nottingham shaped hole at the centre of Crewe’s defence.
Released by Peterborough after only playing a handful of games in the 19/20 season, Bennett is 28 and brings a wide range of skills which would be ideal for Crewe.
Typically used on the right of 3 centre backs for Posh, Bennett shows an impressive passing range, especially switching the play to the left wing. This is a ploy Crewe already use with the Wintle to Kirk connection, and having a defender also hitting this pass would keep opponents on their toes. He is also tidy in general play; he completed over 82% of his passes, which was 7th among League 1 centre backs.
Bennett won 70% of his aerial duels last season, making the most of his 6’3 frame. While we should be careful with a limited sample size, Bennett put up strong numbers. His numbers in 18/19 when he played a lot more aren’t as impressive, but he still won 60% of his aerials duels and completed 72% of his passes, which are decent enough numbers.
Aside from his wages, the main issue with Bennett may be his need for regular first team football. At 28, he should expect to play every week at this level. With Offord emerging, Nolan a mainstay, and Lancashire still around, that may be a hard guarantee.
Aaron Martin
Again, around peak age at 30, it is a major surprise that Aaron Martin is available considering his importance to Exeter’s defence during their successful League Two campaign. There is limited information, but it seems the decision is purely financial.
Martin led Exeter centre backs in pass completion 78.8% (Wyscout) and shows enough tidiness on the ball to project him into a more possession focused backline.
He reads the game well, which shows in his numbers compared to League Two centre backs. He is rock solid without standing out when looking at his heading, interception and defensive duel numbers.
Martin would be a shrewd pick-up if the finances work. The issue may be persuading Martin to move all the way from Exeter. It would be hard to guarantee him a starting spot at Crewe.
Yoan Zouma
My wildcard pick. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Zouma ended up anywhere between the Championship and the National League– there is a lot of projection involved when evaluating him.
Bolton threw Zouma (yes, the younger brother of the Chelsea one) in at the deep end last season. He played his first meaningful first team football, at the age of 21, in a cobbled together side that got tonked in League One. It’s hard to know how good he is.
Zouma was released this summer and his manager questioned his tactical discipline last term. From watching his film, even his best moments seem to be when he is defending 1-on-1 and are due to him being out of position in the first place:
He is clearly someone that absolutely loves defending though, which is a rare trait to find. He also was very tidy with the ball last season, completing 81% of his passes (Wyscout), and showed good passing range. He won headers at a decent rate (57%) and has all the physical and technical tools to be a better player than League One standard. Which is where the intrigue lies.
Looking at Crewe’s squad composition, I would be tempted to take a flyer on Zouma, and ‘sit him’ for the first couple of months of the season behind the existing 3 centre backs, to get him familiar with the team and take some heat off him. With a 2-year deal, you could try and ease him into the side, and see if he is a good long-term solution.
For Zouma, the appeal of Crewe would be a footballing side near to where he already lives, who would be committed to coaching/improving him at this level and giving him meaningful game time, rather than throwing him under the bus the first time he makes a mistake.
Here is a graph showing all 3 of these possible defensive targets, with Rhys Bennett, Aaron Martin and Yoan Zouma compared to other L1+L2 centre backs. A quick note, ‘PAdj’ is short for ‘possession adjusted’, and 99 is the highest score a player can get in each measure:
Finding a Central Midfielder
Researching central midfielders is easier. Their stats tell you more about them for one thing. Secondly and most importantly, we have 2 perfect players to use as benchmarks – James Jones and Paul Green.
Crewe offered Jones a new deal and clearly had plans for him to be part of the squad. Paul Green could fill the deepest midfield spot as well as his more customary ‘box to box’ position. Therefore, I used them both as a template in the data and saw who got spat out. Here are my favourite replacements:
Jake Hessenthaler
Grimsby released 26-year-old Hessenthaler due to financial issues, despite him being one of their best players.
Typically used as a either the most defensive or a central midfielder in a 433, Hessenthaler project’s excellently as a ‘box to box’ option for Crewe. He is a workhorse and is excellent defensively (especially tackling), shown by this graph comparing him with other League Two midfielders. He has high pass completion and ‘successful defensive duels per 90’ numbers:
Where he may fall as a choice for The Alex is in open play possession. While his overall pass completion is good, he has weaker numbers for ‘deep completions’ into the final third. When looking at clips, Hessenthaler often forces the issue with the ball and his final third passes can come across as ‘hit and hope’ at times.
A bonus is Hessenthaler’s set piece taking ability with his right foot. Hessenthaler created 2.1 chances per 90 last year, which was 6th in League Two equal with Charlie Kirk (WhoScored), proving the value of his crossing as an additional element to his all-action game.
When interviewed last month he said the interest in him was mostly from League Two clubs. The offer of League One football and the likelihood of 20+ games rotating with Finney and occasionally filling in for Wintle would be enticing. His wage demands would be in a similar ballpark to James Jones.
Jake Doyle-Hayes
Aged just 21 and recently released by Aston Villa, Doyle Hayes would provide excellent competition and rotation options for both Ryan Wintle and Oliver Finney.
Doyle-Hayes was very impressive on loan to Cheltenham in League Two last term, winning their Young Player of The Year award. Typically used as a box to box midfielder in a 3-4-2-1, or as the deepest midfielder in a 3-5-2, he is an ideal fit for Crewe tactically.
What stands out is his passing range, and his spatial awareness. He is brave on the ball and tries to make things happen with switches of play, rather than always taking the easy option. He is always scanning for space before he receives the ball, which is a key trait of top midfielders:
Doyle-Hayes projects best as the deepest midfielder, but I think he has the energy to play higher up. He isn’t without flaws defensively – he is quite slight and relies on nicking tackles and interceptions rather than dominating 50/50s. He also lacks composure in front of goal and is weaker than Finney in the attacking third. In fact, Doyle-Hayes and Finney would rotate excellently, just as Green and Finney did towards the end of last season.
To help prove this point, look how closely Doyle-Hayes and Green’s data aligns. They go about it differently, but both did an excellent job last year as midfield ‘all-rounders’ –winning the ball, providing tidiness in possession, and progressing play into the final third (deep completions) for others to finish off:
Cheltenham will obviously want Doyle-Hayes back, but Crewe are now a division higher and could realistically offer a pathway for Doyle-Hayes to play 25+ games, putting him in a possession heavy system where he could flourish.
4. How do our finances look? Do we need to sell players? Are we paying wages for players we don’t want?
As highlighted in my “Ten Things” piece, Crewe’s business model for staying afloat relies on the youth academy producing 1-2 talents every few years, putting them in the ‘shop window’ by playing them in the first team, and then selling them to bigger clubs.
Even with fewer potential buyers than usual, the Alex now have an enticing menu of prospects for Championship and even Premier League clubs.
Whether the club need to sell this summer is hard to say. My guess is that they’ll have a price in mind for each of their key assets (see point 5), and they’ll stick rigidly to those prices. If a good enough offer comes in, they’ll ship them out, but I don’t think they’re in a desperate position to sell. Most indications from the contract offers and new signings they have made this summer are that Crewe want to solidify in League One and will have the means to do so.
This is partly due to how little fat there is to trim in the Crewe squad. There are only 7 players currently on the books for the 2020/21 season over the age of 23.
5. What is the selling price we’d accept for every player we have? Are there buyers who could pay this price?
Football selling prices are strange things, and there are so many factors that come into play when setting them. These include:
· Player ability
· Player skills (especially rare skills)
· Player first team performance (including data)
· Player age and experience
· Player position
· Player contract
· Homegrown/ domestic status
· Selling club finances
· Buying club finances
· Selling club ability to replace them
These factors are difficult to consider in isolation, and club finances are often tricky to have a true handle on. Fees are also a complicated, secretive web of add-ons, guarantees and promises.
Still, I think there is value in thinking about all the factors listed above and applying them to Crewe’s players to establish a reasonable selling price.
I will focus on Crewe’s 2 most sellable stars. By considering their skills and benchmarking them against similar players sold, we can hopefully work out their value to other teams, not Crewe’s. And before I get grief from Crewe fans – I’m not saying I want to sell them. I’m saying these are the thought processes that the club could (and maybe should) be making.
Harry Pickering
Pickering in many ways has the most ‘upside’. He is young (just 21) but has already played over 100 league games. He has put up fantastic performance data, especially in the 19/20 season. He has one year left on his contract, though Crewe have an option for a further year.
He has a wide set of skills, some of which are rare. He is a left footed and plays at left back – every team wants this, but the available talent pool is quite small. If you consider his crossing, long passing and set piece ability, he becomes even more valuable. If you then add on that he’s clearly improved defensively – you have a player who has an increasingly rounded skillset and has the mentality/willingness to improve.
Benchmarking: Sam McCallum went for a guaranteed £2.5 million up to potentially £4.5 million from Coventry to Norwich in January 2020, with a loan back option. Also a young left back (19), McCallum is defensively stronger than Pickering, but offers less going forward. McCallum has less first team experience, but his experience is at a higher level and in a better team. Coventry also have more leverage as a wealthier selling club, and a strong existing relationship with the buyers (James Maddison made the same move a few years ago).
While Pickering’s value is hampered by playing a division down so far in his career, his projected ‘ceiling’ is like McCallum’s. Therefore, you could certainly argue that a fee for Pickering of around £1.5-2.5m rising to potentially £4 – 4.5m in add-ons as a reasonable benchmark.
Perry Ng
Perry Ng is Crewe’s best player, but he isn’t the most valuable sellable asset right now. He is the oldest of the fine crop of youngsters (24), and only has 1 year left on his contract.
Nonetheless, Ng provides an incredibly rounded skillset, with few weaknesses in his game. Defensively, in possession, in attack – he ticks every box. He is versatile and could easily play as a full back, right sided centre back or wingback at the Championship level. He is Crewe’s captain and has a wealth of experience gained through 140 career league appearances. He is savvy and excels at the ‘dark arts’ - an area that Crewe academy graduates often fall down.
Benchmarking: Kane Vincent-Young. Right back Kane Vincent Young went from Colchester to Ipswich last summer, and hilariously Dave Artell has already made a ranting comparison between Young and Ng:
"I've seen this morning that Ipswich have bid half-a-million quid for Kane Vincent-Young at Colchester.
"So whoever is doing Ipswich's recruitment they should give him his P45, because he's missed out on the best right back in the league.”
Not one to mince words, Artell had a point. Vincent-Young was 23 when he moved and went for £680,000. Ng is a tad older and is out of contract soon but is a better player and has a tonne of experience to go with his upside. Crewe’s hands are tied by his contract, but they could still reasonably ask for between £750,000 - £1m for Ng as a minimum. He could easily go for more if Crewe had more contract leverage.
Summing Up
In conclusion, when answering the question “How should Crewe navigate the transfer market this summer?”, my short answer would be “beg Perry Ng to sign a new deal or sell him this summer”. New signings don’t matter in comparison to the value tied up in their existing players.
Ryan Wintle and Tom Lowery’s contracts also only have a year to run, and the sharks at other clubs will be circling. If the club really must sell, I think Ng is most logical. Persuading Wintle and Lowery to stay, who aren’t as far along in their development, should hopefully be easier. I would also exercise Harry Pickering’s 1-year contract extension as soon as possible, and not budge on a high asking price if anyone is sniffing around.
The good news is that there are clear pathways within the squad to integrate more young players. I’m especially looking at Luke Offord and Olly Finney to continue to improve this season. Callum Ainley and the newly signed strikers provide depth in the final third. There is potential for the young fullbacks Adebisi and Johnson to get more game time in rotation, and prospects like Josh Lundstram make me feel secure that Crewe have options whatever happens this season.
If I had to pick one player to bring in, I’d pick Jake Doyle-Hayes due to his big upside and ability to play 2 positions in Crewe’s system skilfully. However, I think Artell is more likely to plump for a centre back. If that’s the case, then Rhys Bennett gets my vote, as the least risky pick of the available bunch.