Picking the Lock: Harry Pickering will be opening up Championship defences next season
With the heart-breaking news that Crewe's star left back is joining Blackburn, I go through his strengths, weaknesses, and tactical fit for Rovers.
Well, this feels like a gut punch. While Perry Ng leaving for Cardiff a few weeks ago felt like the right timing for everyone, I’m not sure I’m ready to see Harry Pickering in another team’s shirt next season.
Pickering is my favourite player in a very likeable Crewe Alexandra side. He combines so many valuable skills, has a fantastic attitude on and off the pitch, and is best current representation of the typical ‘Crewe Academy Graduate’. He’s young but massively experienced, and he’s far more technically gifted than he is physically. He reminds me of a few Crewe players who have gone onto bigger clubs, but I have a feeling he’ll go onto be the best.
Despite my disappointment, this is a fantastic move for Blackburn and for Pixie himself, who this season has proven himself to be the biggest talent in Crewe’s current crop. He’s signed for Blackburn for an undisclosed fee, understood to be an initial £650,000 (an enormous bargain), and he stays at Gresty Road until the end of the season. This is quite a critical silver lining for the Alex, as his recent mini absence showed we aren’t ready to play our best football without our star left back.
In this article, I’ll go through Pickering’s strengths, weaknesses, and his tactical fit at Blackburn Rovers. The data is from Whoscored, FBRef, and me. For the Blackburn section, I got a big hand from Andy Watson, who is the expert of all things Blackburn. He predicted this transfer an absolute age ago, so it might worth asking him for next week’s lottery numbers when you follow him on Twitter.
What kind of sauce is HP bringing?
Harry Pickering is two games short of 150 for the Alex since making his first-team debut just a few years ago in April 2017. This is firstly testament to his fitness as an attacking full-back who regularly bombs up and down the pitch. It also points to his experience for someone so young. He has only just turned 22, but he is already Crewe’s captain and will continue to be for the rest of the season.
In that time, his development has been clear to see every season. Having come through Crewe’s academy as a central midfielder (more on that later), he has shone as Crewe’s left back both with and without the ball. When he arrived in the Alex’s backline, opposition teams clearly targeted him defensively. Despite being tall (around 6 foot), Pickering is slight and the perception from opposition was that he could be bullied, either by a physical striker pulling wide or a speedy winger taking him on. During his career, this tactic has looked less and less fruitful.
Every year, Pickering has looked more natural defensively. He is still quite passive, but he brings excellent concentration and decision making when under pressure, often backing away from dribbling wingers and waiting for the right time to tackle or block the ball. He has middling tackling (0.55 won per 90) and interception (0.72 per 90) numbers this season, but often shows that defending is about doing less rather than doing more.
Going forward is where Pixie really excels .Pickering stood out so much in League Two in the 2019-20 season that that The Athletic highlighted him as the ideal left back signing to back up Andy Robertson for Liverpool. Their analytics writer Tom Worville (his Twitter is here) used this graphic to display the enormous output that the left back generated:
This chart shows Pickering’s performance compared to other full backs last season in a variety of skills, benchmarked to a Premier League standard (!).Pickering created at an elite level for his teammates, he got forward effectively, and even showed a great eye for goal himself. Most notably, Pickering provided variety to Crewe’s attack. His skill and willingness to cross (222 crosses) was a contrast to the short passing of his teammates. Only one other Crewe player (Lowery, 119) hit more than 100 crosses.
You can see from the chances Pickering created last season in open play that he provides a threat from anywhere on the left-hand side of the pitch (thanks to Paul Riley for this viz, you can follow him on Twitter here):
Pickering isn’t a classical fullback who just races up and down the left touchline. In possession, he often tucks inside to provide a passing option, and can provide incisive through balls and crosses from all over the park. When he does overlap he does so intelligently, relying on timing to receive the ball on the run near the byline. There is an element of Trent Alexander Arnold about his game – his primary job is to create, and he is happy to mix up the length of his passing to mix up Crewe’s play.
He hits final passes and crosses with precision and speed. I think his assist numbers (currently around 5 per year, and marked in yellow above) don’t tell the full story. Like Marcus Rashford at half term, he is superb at putting it on a plate:
Pickering has seamlessly gone from one of the best creators in League Two, to being one of the best chance creators in League One. He has so far created 54 chances this season, which is 3rd among all players in League One.
So, Blackburn are getting a vastly improving defender, who is young but experienced, and creates to a remarkably high level in open play. Sounds good right? Well we haven’t even touched upon his ability with the dead ball yet.
Pickering is an excellent free kick and corner taker, with a magic left boot (insert your own Harry Potter/Jimmy Grimble reference here). When there is a free kick within 30 yards of goal, there is an instant air of anticipation that Pixie might score. I’m tempted to call him the League One Alexander-Arnold, but I think the best comparison might be the League One Ward-Prowse:
This Youtube compilation from Tim Robinson (follow him on Twitter here) shows many of the best bits from Pickering in the final third, including a belting recent free kick against Doncaster (at 3.34). I’ll be watching that video on a loop over the next week, while crying under the covers and binge eating ice cream.
What’s the catch?
I honestly don’t think there is a big weakness in Pickering’s play. When the rumours began to circle around Pickering moving on this January, it became increasingly clear that he had some form of release clause in his Crewe contract, and whichever club wanted to trigger it first would be getting their hands on a bargain. Blackburn to their credit always looked like the likeliest place for Pickering to go, and to continue to develop.
There are certainly areas where Pixie can improve, and there are a couple of things that might cap his overall potential.
The key thing is pace. Pickering isn’t exactly slow, but he lacks agility and acceleration and can look a little bit stiff in his movements. Against quicker and more skilful wingers, and often having to defend a bigger space (bigger pitches, more spaced out defensive lines), it will be interesting to see how he steps up. It is the only big red flag for him, and I think it’s overblown as an issue for him among scouts and analysts, though they are the experts for a reason.
While a yard of pace might not seem like much, for fullbacks it’s worth millions. Another young, talented League One left back had a big transfer last season. Sam McCallum went for a guaranteed £2.5 million up to potentially £4.5 million from Coventry to Norwich in January 2020, with a loan back option. McCallum lacks a lot of Pickering’s attacking talent and technical ability, but his speed makes him much more comfortable defending 1-on-1, which is especially important in higher divisions, where fullbacks typically have more to deal with.
An interesting aspect of Pickering’s development has been his confidence. Firstly, he doesn’t shy away from pressure situations. It feels like I’ve spent half of lockdown watching an absolutely exhausted Pickering trotting over to the other side of the pitch to take a Crewe corner late on in a tight game. Despite his clear belief in his ability, and his hard-working nature, he seems like a shy character and lacks command on the pitch. It has been funny to see Pickering stood in the captain’s armband in recent weeks, and still get told off by his gobby partner in crime Charlie Kirk (who, to be fair, tells everyone off).
Lastly, while this isn’t exactly a weakness, Pickering has enormously benefited from Crewe’s tactical set-up and his connection with his teammates. The clearest example of this is Pickering’s almost psychic relationship with Kirk, who plays ahead of him on the left. This is something I wrote about a couple of years ago and has only continued to improve in this time. Crewe’s shape in the attacking phase turns into a 2-3-5, and it is Kirk and Pickering’s interchange that keeps opponents continually stretched:
While I have no doubt that Pickering will slot into any style or system with ease, Crewe’s high possession style, and Kirk’s inventiveness and unselfishness often brings out the best of Pickering. The limited outings Pixie has had without Kirk haven’t had the same rhythm and sparkle.
How will he fit in at Blackburn?
It is clear that Tony Mowbray and his recruitment team have been planning for Harry Pickering for quite some time. The current incumbent of the left back slot for Rovers is Barry Douglas, a technical full back with an excellent left foot and great set piece delivery. So far, so similar.
However, Pickering will revolutionise that position for Blackburn. His engine to get up and down the left flank within the 4-3-3 / 4-2-2-2 that Rovers want to play means that the balance of attack can be equalised on both flanks. Pickering will have to adapt to having Ben Brereton in front of him, a completely different player to Charlie Kirk, with Pickering needing to overlap more and hold the width.
Whilst this may be at odds with some of his more natural tendencies to play centrally, it is definitely something I think he is capable of doing.
Aside from a few tactical details, Pickering should feel at home at Blackburn. He will be joining a young, ambitious squad, with a manager who instils a spirit of togetherness with his players and enjoys working with them "on the grass". The emphasis on controlling the ball and playing on the ground will be familiar to Pickering, and so it feels like an excellent fit for both player and club.
While it seems clear that Pickering has been recruited to compete for Blackburn’s left back spot next season, there is also a versatility to his skillset that Crewe haven’t fully utilised, and Blackburn might want to test out.
In a 4-3-3 shape, I think Pickering’s best position in the long term might be as the left central midfielder. From there, he has equal license to create and link with the winger on the left, while having less to worry about defensively, especially 1-on-1. Pickering, according to Crewe’s manager Dave Artell, is a football obsessive, and this shows on the pitch; he is certainly intelligent enough to re-learn the position he grew up playing. There’s a chance that Blackburn think they’ve bought a League One left back, when they’ve actually bought a Premier League central midfielder.