Crewe's Goalkeeper Change - Is it worth it?
Dave Richards has replaced Will Jaaskelainen as Crewe's first choice goalkeeper in recent weeks. He seems to be playing well enough, but has he earned the starting spot full time?
Despite some high profile transfers out in recent weeks, not a lot has happened on the pitch for Crewe Alexandra fans to get excited about (or even interested in) lately. It says a lot when a new scoreboard is the most riveting piece of Crewe news.
Turgid performances by both the Alex and their opponents, a schedule lull, and a post-transfer window squad sort out has led to the team and its fans sleepwalking into accepting a mid-table place. While this isn’t a problem (I expected mid-table and I’m happy enough with it), it’s a bit dull. As someone trying to write about the team, there isn’t a lot to hang onto.
One (kind of!) interesting thing has happened lately, though. To my disappointment, boy prodigy Will Jaaskelainen has been dropped between the sticks, and long-time back-up Dave Richards has come in. Now that Richards has had a decent run as first choice, I thought I’d ask – has the change been worth it? Strap yourselves in for some goalkeeper analysis, woooooooooo!
A lad on the streets, and a keeper of clean sheets? A case for Dave Richards
Dave Richards, Crewe’s current starting goalkeeper, seems like a good guy. He’s got himself a dodgy lockdown haircut, he has been a back-up for years without complaint, and he has a great knack of saving penalties in big cup games. For a lot of Crewe fans, his success is very welcome, and his teammates seem to love him too. His current run of starting league games is his longest since he joined the club, and he hasn’t looked out of place in League One so far.
His early performances stack up very well in some of the data. As shown below (thanks to Posh Report on Twitter for the great graph), Richards is saving a higher than average % of shots he’s facing than the average goalkeeper would, and he’s doing a good job of leaving his line frequently to deal with crosses:
While Richards has only played 8 league games for Crewe so far this season, there are some things we can say for certain. ‘Exits’ in this graph means how regularly Richards comes off his line to make punches or catches. This is an area where Richards is obviously more confident than Jaaskelainen. Crewe are a small team and despite a strong defensive record throughout the season, have looked susceptible to conceding through opposition crosses. They have conceded 11 set piece goals so far this season, which is 6th worst in League One. Their defending from open play has been broadly solid but this is an area that is clearly letting them down. Richards’ playing in goal should help keep a lid on conceding from crosses (particularly corners) and it’s his biggest comparative advantage over Will.
Richards also stacks up well when considering the quality of the shots he’s saving, using Post Shot Expected Goals (PSxG). This measure considers not just where the shot is taken from, but where it is heading in the goal. As shown in this great graph by @xG_Data below, Richards has been facing more difficult/higher quality shots than Will J did, and has done a better job of saving them:
Richards has been busier than Jaaskelainen in goal, and has done a solid job considering this. While he continues to save shots at an above League One average rate, and provide an improvement in terms of claiming crosses and commanding his area, it does seem like the goalkeeper spot is Richards’ to lose.
However, there is still a case for Jaaskelainen coming back into the line up
While he has made a couple of clear mistakes, Jaaskelainen’s shot stopping performance hasn’t really been any different this season compared to last. The Stats Perform diagram below shows that Will had a slightly below average season last term for shot stopping. While below average isn’t ideal, it’s far from the end of the world either. He’s young and developing, and to stop shots around the average level is fine at this stage of his career:
Will J also has a rare set of skills which make him particularly useful to the way Crewe play. Jaaskelainen has been critical in Crewe’s build up from the back since becoming a regular, as he is undoubtedly talented with the ball at his feet. This is an area he is certainly stronger at than most keepers, Dave Richards included. Looking at both of their League One data in possession (taken from WhoScored), a clear pattern emerges:
Jaaskelainen is tidier than Richards in possession, and is a much more capable and willing short passer. He has a much higher pass completion % of 74.8, which is 2nd highest among all League One goalkeepers. Dave Richards does hit more successful long passes per game and is possibly better at this aspect of distribution, but it’s a skill that doesn’t suit Crewe’s play.
The eye-catching data viz below helps to show how heavily Crewe rely on short passing at the back (no, it isn’t a Jackson Pollock painting or a Stone Roses album cover). Kindly provided by Chris from Statsbomb (the best data provider for football, I was lucky to get this without serious £££), this graph shows the most used pass types by Crewe compared to other teams. Each colour represents a ‘cluster’ – a type of pass that can be grouped together. Crewe are uniquely committed to building up from the back compared to other teams:
The sea of passes in their own half tell a story. Crewe love to play patiently in their own half, waiting for opportunities to set players like Kirk and Pickering free in wide areas. Only Rochdale in League One have more of the ball in their own third than Crewe.
You might be saying at this point – “okay well Crewe pass around at the back loads, why does that make a difference, it isn’t a goalkeeper’s job?” Well, increasingly it is.
Firstly, Crewe’ play through the opposition press has clearly stagnated in recent weeks, and teams are finding ways to stop this patient build up play. Crewe’s opponents are increasingly pressing us in a high 442, forcing either Richards, Olly Lancashire at right sided centre back, or whoever is playing right back, into making tough decisions on the ball. These players have been identified as the weak links in possession.
Dave Richards’ discomfort in possession means he is resorting to pumping it long and losing the ball much more frequently than Will J did, and our defenders also seem less willing to involve him as part of build-up. These details aren’t helping in a team that looks short on confidence.
Another related detail is that teams at all levels are increasing seeing the value of playing out from the back from goal kicks. The new goal kick rule, which seems to have been around forever but only came it at the start of last season, has been a key driver of this trend. With teams now able to play a first pass, effectively ‘for free’ inside their own box, teams at all levels have increasing opportunities and incentive to play out from the back.
The new goal kick rule benefited the Alex a lot last season. Crewe recorded the highest proportion of goal kicks which ended inside their own box (47.6%). They were rewarded handsomely for this tactic in relation to gaining territory upfield, averaging nearly 10 metres more ball progression when they went short, compared to when they went long. This was the biggest difference/benefit from short kicks in League Two last year. Will J did a great job playing it short effectively, starting off Crewe’s long passing sequences that often lead to superb team goals.
More widely, when Duncan Alexander from Stats Perform compared short and long goal kicks in Premier League since the new rule came in, he clearly showed that short goal kicks are more effective than long ones. As the map below shows, every single PL club progressed the ball further last season when they went short from goal kicks. Even clubs like Burnley and Sheffield United who normally like to go long:
To bring this back around to Crewe, have a look how often and how well Dave Richards takes short goal kicks. Is he always willing to go short? Does he look confident when he goes short? Do his passes put his defenders in a good position to build up play from the back? I’m not so sure.
The case for Will Jaaskelainen then, in short, is his ability on the ball. He is better suited to Crewe’s style in build up, and his absence is showing up in their recent lacklustre performances.
While Dave Artell will rightly defend playing Richards over Jaaskelainen if results improve on the pitch, benching the young Finn is also potentially damaging to his confidence, development and crucially his transfer value. With the goalkeeper roles currently reversed, Crewe have an issue on their hands in terms of the squad structure.
In an illuminating recent interview with the EFL podcast, Crewe manager Dave Artell explained (among loads of other things, you should really listen) that the key measure success is judged upon at Crewe is Return on Investment from their players, particularly academy graduates. While Jaaskelainen isn’t technically an academy graduate, he has been at Crewe for a while and joined on a free. At the start of the season, he certainly would have attracted a decent fee, and therefore a big Return on Investment.
Jaaskelainen is still young (22 years old), and he is the one Crewe goalkeeper who is likely to attract interest from Championship and Premier League clubs if he develops further. While it would be unfair to drop Richards in the short term, this season now provides the perfect opportunity to maximise the minutes of Crewe’s youngest talents. As I mentioned right at the start, it’s starting to look like a season of consolidation. A play-off spot is unlikely, relegation is (almost) out of the equation.
Therefore, the best case for Will J regaining the Number 1 goalkeeper spot is that he’s the best long-term answer at the position for Crewe – either in the team or as a high value sale. He represents a better opportunity for Return on Investment, and the best way to maximise this is with as many first team games as possible. While it would be harsh on Richards to drop him now, an eye on the long term might come into play, the longer this season’s lull continues.