A few points to disagree on here. The attack was the real deal? Don't agree at all. Was poor in the first and final thirds of the season with a decent stretch in the middle against mostly weaker opponents. They were in the bottom half for goals and shots in total. Their variety was also lacking, can't remember any from the edge of the box or further away. I thought their attack was bang average in a poor league.
Second, Kirk's XG plot shows he moved from 4 XG to 6 XG between games 22-42. A 20 game stretch and you're only worth 2 goals? That's awful, from one of the most experienced and talented members of the team, not to mention an ever present pretty much. The fact that both Finney and Dale surpassed him for expected goals in far less starts is not a great look for him.
You mention Porter's opta stats. But do they factor in penalties? And do they factor in that his 4 open play goals were all tap ins from a few yards out? Sure, we can praise his positioning to get 4 tap ins, but praising him for his shot selection seems odd when all he basically had to do was tap it into an empty net. Not like he had any other option. And he's a great option from the bench? He scored 1 goal this season from 21 bench appearances and I think 1 assist. He also managed just 5 shots in those bench appearances. I'd say his impact is questionable and I hope Long can do the business to keep him out of the squad as much as possible.
I disagree that Artell switched things up quicker and more often. I found he rarely veered away from the formation he started the game with, unless you have data to show otherwise? Most of his changes were like for like, with only a few instances of him changing things to go more attack or defence minded.
You say the Alex did well with injuries? They did? They had Daniels out most of the season, Ainley missed most of the 2nd half, Finney missed the final 20 games, Offord had 2 serious hamstring injuries, Lundstram was out most of the season, most of the other players were missing here and there with knocks and niggles. Jones got injured 3 games into his loan spell. Lowery only started 30 games. Powell was absent for weeks at a time. I don't blame them for suffering, given the condensed schedule and disruption of Covid, but I think this season was awful for injuries, especially long term ones. Ainley, Finney, Offord, Lundstram all missed big chunks. Praying things are better next season.
I also disagree their summer business was a success. Mandron, sure. Beckles, meh. Good first half of the season, atrocious 2nd half. The fact he's leaving after 1 year and nobody seems that bothered is telling. Hardly a home run signing. Murphy? Do you have any data to show what impact he actually had this season, because I can't think of anything he did, bar a couple of decent passes for assists. I felt he was mostly invisible and should Lowery and Finney stay fit next season, I don't see him starting many games. Daniels was injured all season and you didn't even mention the total flop that was Zanzala. I'd say Artell's summer 2020 window was mixed, at best. One very useful player, one partially useful player, one player who's use was questionable, one that spent most of the season on the treatment table and one that was released 6 months in. Need a far better hit rate than that this summer.
I disagree with your assertation that the January loans were panic buying. Most were brought in to cover for injured/departed players. Jones was Ng's replacement. Walker was brought in to compete for a winger spot given Powell's effectiveness had dropped to zero by that stage. Ok, Wood was perhaps unnecessary, but Evans was probably to cope with the lack of Ainley. And that one, whilst he didn't work out, proved even more useful when Finney went down. Without Evans, the midfield might have really struggled given Lowery and Murphy missed a few games with niggles and Wintle's form dropped off. Not sure who else would have started sans those players had Evans not been there. But I don't see how bulking out the squad was a panic move, it felt more like improving the depth for a play off run, as you mentioned seemed to be the intention.
Overall I liked the analysis and you did a great job of showing a lot of different things. I would just question some of your takeaways as mentioned above.
A few points to disagree on here. The attack was the real deal? Don't agree at all. Was poor in the first and final thirds of the season with a decent stretch in the middle against mostly weaker opponents. They were in the bottom half for goals and shots in total. Their variety was also lacking, can't remember any from the edge of the box or further away. I thought their attack was bang average in a poor league.
Second, Kirk's XG plot shows he moved from 4 XG to 6 XG between games 22-42. A 20 game stretch and you're only worth 2 goals? That's awful, from one of the most experienced and talented members of the team, not to mention an ever present pretty much. The fact that both Finney and Dale surpassed him for expected goals in far less starts is not a great look for him.
You mention Porter's opta stats. But do they factor in penalties? And do they factor in that his 4 open play goals were all tap ins from a few yards out? Sure, we can praise his positioning to get 4 tap ins, but praising him for his shot selection seems odd when all he basically had to do was tap it into an empty net. Not like he had any other option. And he's a great option from the bench? He scored 1 goal this season from 21 bench appearances and I think 1 assist. He also managed just 5 shots in those bench appearances. I'd say his impact is questionable and I hope Long can do the business to keep him out of the squad as much as possible.
I disagree that Artell switched things up quicker and more often. I found he rarely veered away from the formation he started the game with, unless you have data to show otherwise? Most of his changes were like for like, with only a few instances of him changing things to go more attack or defence minded.
You say the Alex did well with injuries? They did? They had Daniels out most of the season, Ainley missed most of the 2nd half, Finney missed the final 20 games, Offord had 2 serious hamstring injuries, Lundstram was out most of the season, most of the other players were missing here and there with knocks and niggles. Jones got injured 3 games into his loan spell. Lowery only started 30 games. Powell was absent for weeks at a time. I don't blame them for suffering, given the condensed schedule and disruption of Covid, but I think this season was awful for injuries, especially long term ones. Ainley, Finney, Offord, Lundstram all missed big chunks. Praying things are better next season.
I also disagree their summer business was a success. Mandron, sure. Beckles, meh. Good first half of the season, atrocious 2nd half. The fact he's leaving after 1 year and nobody seems that bothered is telling. Hardly a home run signing. Murphy? Do you have any data to show what impact he actually had this season, because I can't think of anything he did, bar a couple of decent passes for assists. I felt he was mostly invisible and should Lowery and Finney stay fit next season, I don't see him starting many games. Daniels was injured all season and you didn't even mention the total flop that was Zanzala. I'd say Artell's summer 2020 window was mixed, at best. One very useful player, one partially useful player, one player who's use was questionable, one that spent most of the season on the treatment table and one that was released 6 months in. Need a far better hit rate than that this summer.
I disagree with your assertation that the January loans were panic buying. Most were brought in to cover for injured/departed players. Jones was Ng's replacement. Walker was brought in to compete for a winger spot given Powell's effectiveness had dropped to zero by that stage. Ok, Wood was perhaps unnecessary, but Evans was probably to cope with the lack of Ainley. And that one, whilst he didn't work out, proved even more useful when Finney went down. Without Evans, the midfield might have really struggled given Lowery and Murphy missed a few games with niggles and Wintle's form dropped off. Not sure who else would have started sans those players had Evans not been there. But I don't see how bulking out the squad was a panic move, it felt more like improving the depth for a play off run, as you mentioned seemed to be the intention.
Overall I liked the analysis and you did a great job of showing a lot of different things. I would just question some of your takeaways as mentioned above.